Tariffs, Trade Wars and Regulation: A 12-Month Update on the Global Compliance Impact

A year ago, Surety published an early analysis of how Trump’s tariff announcements were beginning to ripple through global regulatory frameworks. Twelve months on, the picture has sharpened considerably. The tariff regime has escalated, trade relationships have been redrawn, and regulators across multiple jurisdictions have responded with new guidance, updated risk frameworks, and in some cases emergency interventions.

Where Things Stand in April 2026

US tariffs now cover a broad range of goods from multiple jurisdictions, with rates on Chinese imports in particular reaching levels not seen in modern trade history. The EU has implemented countermeasures, the UK has navigated its own separate tariff negotiations, and MENA economies — particularly the UAE and Saudi Arabia — have accelerated diversification strategies partly in response to trade uncertainty. Financial institutions operating across these regions face an increasingly fragmented regulatory landscape.

The Regulatory Response: Capital, Risk and Reporting

Prudential regulators have updated their macroeconomic stress scenarios to incorporate tariff-driven disruption. The EBA, PRA, and Fed have all signalled that 2025 and 2026 stress tests will include severe trade war scenarios. For compliance teams, this creates cascading obligations — updated risk appetite statements, revised counterparty credit assessments, and enhanced regulatory reporting on concentrated exposures to tariff-affected sectors.

Sanctions and Trade Controls: The Hidden Compliance Risk

One of the less-discussed consequences of the tariff environment is the increased risk of sanctions evasion and trade controls violations. As legitimate trade routes become more expensive, the incentive to route transactions through intermediaries increases. Financial institutions need to ensure their transaction monitoring and sanctions screening programmes are calibrated for this elevated risk environment, particularly for correspondent banking relationships and trade finance.

What Compliance Teams Should Prioritise

In this environment, compliance teams should focus on three priorities: first, ensuring risk appetite and regulatory reporting reflect the current macroeconomic reality; second, reviewing third-party and supply chain exposure for tariff-affected counterparties; and third, stress-testing AML and sanctions controls against elevated evasion risk. Surety’s platform supports all three, providing the workflow, documentation, and reporting infrastructure to manage obligations systematically. Contact us to discuss how Surety can support your compliance programme in 2026.